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SEC-Big 12 Bowl

Since 1946, the Big 10 and the Pac-12 (both in their various incarnations with different numbers of teams) have an agreement with the Rose Bowl to pit their conference champions against each other in Pasadena on New Year's Day.

  • Since 1998, the two conferences have belonged to the BCS, which means committing one or both of their champions to the BCS championship game if either finishes #1 or #2. (In no year have both the Big Ten and Pac-12 champs played for the BCS championship.)
  • But even after joining the BCS, the two conferences and the Rose Bowl retained the right to negotiate a separate TV contract from the rest of the bowls.

Now the SEC and Big 12 have finally decided they should pair up and offer their champions to a bowl.

  • Which bowl? They don't care. The only criterion is who bids the most money.
  • The Sugar Bowl is on notice. Your long-time association with the SEC - the 2012 game between Michigan and Virginia Tech was only the ninth of the 78 Sugar Bowls that didn't involve an SEC team - counts for nothing unless you outbid Jerry Jones's Cotton Bowl and every other candidate.
  • The SEC and Big 12 will apparently have the same agreement that the Big 10 and Pac-12 have had with the Rose Bowl in that neither champion is obligated to the game if they earn a spot in the Final Four playoff that seems likely to begin in 2014.

My first reaction to the announcement is this.

What took you so long?

Having posed the question, I'll try to answer it.

  • Roy Kramer, SEC Commissioner from 1990-2002, was the prime mover in creating, first, the Bowl Coalition (1992-5), then the Bowl Alliance (1996-8), and finally the BCS starting with the 1998 season. All were attempts to match up the #1 and #2 teams in a bowl in a de facto championship game.
  • The main problem with the Bowl Coalition and the Bowl Alliance was the lack of participation by the Big 10 and (then) Pac-10. So in 1996, for example, Florida State and Arizona State were the only two undefeated teams at the end of the regular season. But Arizona State was committed to the Rose Bowl. So Florida State had to play Florida again in the Sugar Bowl.
  • Finally, Kramer talked the Big 10 and Pac 10 into joining with them in the BCS. But the concession they had to make was to allow the Rose Bowl to negotiate TV rights apart from the BCS package.
  • So the SEC felt an obligation to cooperate as fully as possible with the other conferences in the BCS. Since the Rose Bowl/Big 10/Pac 10 bloc was a thorn in the side of the BCS, it wouldn't have looked good to imitate them by joining with the Big 12 or ACC or Big East to negotiate a separate bowl/TV package.
  • But now the BCS is breaking up. The new plan being crafted by the commissioners promises to comprise these elements:
    • A four-team playoff, probably with the semifinal games in two of the bowls
  • I said "comprise these elements" (plural) and listed only one item intentionally to make the point that the structure being negotiated for 2014 and beyond apparently will not include all the other trappings of the BCS; namely,
    • Contracts with four bowls (Rose, Sugar, Orange, Fiesta) to host games whose participants are determined by BCS rules;
    • Those rules included a guaranteed spot in one of the four bowls for the conference champion of each of the six "BCS Conferences" (SEC, Big Ten, ACC, Big East, Big 12, Pac-12);
    • At-large spots in the bowls for teams not from the BCS conferences who satisfy certain criteria such as ranking in the Top 12 of the final BCS standings.
  • That last point was not part of the original BCS agreements but was included after public pressure forced the BCS conferences to give the Boise States and TCUs a chance to play with the big boys.
  • But the original BCS conferences don't like having to share the pie with the other conferences. And the four BCS bowls don't like the restrictions on whom they can choose. For example, the Sugar Bowl couldn't choose #6 Arkansas after this past season because the SEC already had two teams in the BCS Championship Game.
  • As a long-time proponent of a Final Four in football, but with only conference champions involved, I'm heartened by the action of the SEC and Big 12 because it may signal the belief of the two commissioners that the vote will come down on the side of conference champions only. So they're covering all bases with this bowl agreement to make sure that a team like Alabama in 2011 or Texas in 2008 still has a spot in a lucrative bowl.
  • The agreement makes the Big 12 even more of an attraction for schools like Florida State because of the added bowl money flowing into the conference. The ACC and maybe the Big East can expect to lose members. Those two conferences may now join into an alliance with a bowl themselves, but they won't command the big bucks the other four BCS conferences receive from the Rose Bowl and the bowl that wins the bid for the SEC-Big 12 matchup.

Florida State to Big 12?

Suddenly conference realignment has reared its ugly head again, and this time the talk centers around my other alma mater, Florida State, and the possibility the Seminoles will move to the Big 12, with Clemson tagging along (or the other way around if you're a Clemson fan).

Here's some comments gleaned from Internet articles and from Tim Brandao on CBS College Sports.

  • Apparently the FSU-to-Big 12 talk began, or at least attracted media attention, with a column by Chip Brown on Orangebloods.com (a Texas Longhorns site).
  • The inspiration for Chip's article was the announcement last week that ESPN had agreed to a new media rights package with the ACC that would increase each conference member's revenue from football and basketball by $4 million, from $13M to $17M.
  • That sounds great, but the rub is that ACC schools can exercise their so-called "third tier" TV rights only in basketball, a move that reinforces what FSU fans have felt since joining the ACC in 1993 - that the conference caters to North Carolina and Duke basketball.
  • The flip side of that is that FSU can't start its own TV network for its sports across the board the way Texas and the other Big 12 schools can.
  • Add to the picture the fact that FSU is facing a $2.4M athletics shortfall for 2012-13, and you have a situation that may impel the Noles to the Big 12 where Brown estimates they can capitalize on the population of Florida and its rabid sports interest to make at least a third of the $15M Texas makes annually from its network. Also, launching its own network would give the Seminoles a leg up on their archrivals at Florida and Miami.
  • Brown also cites another reason for Seminole fans discontent. FSU's 2012 home football schedule that includes Savannah State, Murray State, Wake Forest, Duke, and Boston College. Only two opponents offer much sizzle: Clemson and the annual meeting with Florida. [Of course, FSU scheduled the two non-FBS schools to open the season on its own.]
  • The addition of Pitt and Syracuse in 2013 brings in two more schools that have had more success generally in basketball in recent years than football.
  • Brown points out what happened to impel Texas A&M and Missouri to bolt from the Big 12 to the SEC. In both cases, the school administration and AD were publicly committed to saving the Big 12 until fans voiced their desires on message boards and web sites.
  • Big 12 leaders say publicly they are happy with ten schools. The lack of a conference championship game in football could become an advantage in the Final Four playoff being designed by the BCS for 2014 - no chance your top-ranked team is knocked off in the playoff game as happened several times, most notably in 2003 when Oklahoma was embarrassed by Kansas State. However, Brown reports that off the record questions about expansion bring an answer that amounts to "if it's the right two."

Here's some other comments and questions from hither and yon about the situation.

  • If FSU doesn't like the ACC because it is dominated by North Carolina and Duke, why would it want the Big 12 which is even more dominated by Texas?
  • Some say ACC Commissioner John Wofford (former AD at UNC) invited Pitt and Syracuse for 2013 as insulation should FSU and any other "football school" leave the conference.
  • Another rumor is that SEC Commissioner Mike Slive spent a year trying to persuade Florida and Georgia to accept FSU and Georgia Tech into the conference. (The story has been that South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida made a pact that they would vote as a bloc against the admission of Clemson, Tech, or FSU.) That's why the SEC was tardy in entering the most recent expansion race when Slive had to go to Plan B.
  • Some commentators urge conferences to put expansion talk on hold until the reorganization of the BCS is finalized this summer and the new TV contract is negotiated for 2014 and beyond. One of main reasons schools like TCU and Boise State have joined the so-called "Automatic Qualifying" conferences is to insure participation in a BCS Bowl if they win the conference. But if the top four teams in the final standings automatically go into a playoff, Boise or TCU could make it in the Mountain West. In fact, it might be easier because conference play wouldn't be as tough.
  • Derrick Brooks, former FSU All-American LB who has just completed a five-year term on the FSU Board of Trustees, told Tim Brandao Wednesday that the Big 12 contacted FSU first, which seems to contradict Brown's statement that the Big 12 is happy with ten teams. Actually, it doesn't, though, because one's public stance and what once is doing behind the scenes to prepare for any exigencies are two different things.
  • After Brooks' revelation, Brandao told a subsequent caller that no feelers would have been put out by the Big 12 without the consent of Texas AD DeLoss Dodds and probably Oklahoma also.
  • ESPN's Joe Schad thinks FSU will probably stay in the ACC, and that all this is just posturing by the Chairman of Board of Trustees.

So how does this FSU alumnus sort this out?

  • Weighing the ACC against the Big 12 for interesting football competition for FSU, I see this.
    ACC: Miami (assuming it's rising again under Coach Golden), Clemson, Virginia Tech, and Georgia Tech provide the strongest year-in, year-out competition. Pitt and Syracuse might upgrade football.
    Big 12: Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, TCU, and West Virginia have solid gridiron programs.
    Advantage: Big 12 - but not overwhelmingly
  • Travel in each conference:
    ACC: Boston and Syracuse are further away from Tallahassee than any Big 12 sites.
    Big 12: No sites as close as Miami, Atlanta, Clemson, or the North Carolina quartet
    Advantage: It's a wash.
  • The added TV revenue is tempting and, for a school needing to rebuild its athletics endowment after the decline of its football program over the last decade, probably the deciding factor.
  • Still, I hope FSU doesn't rush to a decision. With the BCS set to change the landscape of college football, wait until 2013 to see the future more clearly. On that note, wouldn't FSU have a better chance of finishing in the top four in the ACC than in the Big 12?
  • Think about the entire sports program. Football carries the most weight but should not be the only factor in the decision.
  • FSU President Eric Barron, whom I met two seasons ago when I attended a game in his suite, laid out the pros and cons of changing conferences. One of the cons was faculty opposition to "joining a league that is academically weaker." That sounds noble, Eric, but you and I both know that won't determine the choice.
  • I have cousins in Durham, Raleigh, and Alexandria VA. So, from a selfish point of view, it's easier for me to attend road games at ACC sites, as I'm planning to do this season when FSU visits NC State.
  • Like many FSU fans, I'd love to see the Noles in the SEC. But that doesn't seem possible. So the Big 12 may be the next best choice.
By the Numbers
50%
MLB players who played college baseball
25%
MLB players who signed out of high school
25%
Players who came from other countries

Interesting Quote

The playoffs have become a two-month actors' workshop in which some of the finest, most graceful athletes in the world compete to see who can most convincingly fall down on purpose. Flopping, once a minor annoyance to fans, has become an epidemic, and King James is far from the only one exhibiting symptoms. At a typical Clippers game there are so many bodies strewn on the floor writhing in fake pain that it's like a Civil War reenactment. Phil Taylor in Sports Illustrated

Applying the Football Final Four Retroactively

I went through the final BCS standings from 1998-2011 and recorded who would have played whom if the proposed #1 vs #4 and #2 vs #3 semifinals had been in effect.

Read year-by-year list

In some years, two teams from the same conference finished in the top four. In those cases, I applied the proposed rule that only conference champions participate in the semifinals to come up with an alternate Final Four setup. I also applied what appears to be the preferred method of choosing the sites for the semifinal games; namely, the tie-in bowls for the #1 and #2 teams.

Here's the summary of the results for teams and bowls.

# Appearances by Teams of Each Conference in Final Four 1998-2011
Conference Top 4
Only champs
ACC 4 5
Big 10 8 7
Big 12 14 11
Big East 5 6
Mountain West 2 4
PAC 10 9 11
SEC 14 12

Semifinals Host Bowls
1998-2011
Conference Top 4
Only champs
Fiesta Bowl 9 8
Sugar Bowl 8 8
Rose Bowl 6 7
Orange Bowl 5 5

Here's what I discovered about the frequency of teams that were not conference champions finishing in the top four.

  • That situation occurred seven times in the 14 years.
  • In two seasons, the top four teams came from only two conferences.
    • In 2006, the BCS top four were Ohio State, Florida, Michigan, and LSU. So two teams would have been replaced if only conference champions could participate with the #5 and #6 teams taking the two spots.
    • The same situation occurred in 2008 with the SEC and Big 12 hogging all the semifinal spots: Oklahoma, Florida, Texas, and Alabama. Again, the #5 and #6 squads would substitute.
  • 2011 produced the biggest mess of all.
    • The top four were LSU, Alabama, Oklahoma State, and Stanford. But neither Alabama nor Stanford were conference champions, Stanford having lost head-to-head against #5 Oregon.
    • So the Ducks would have replaced Stanford. As for the Alabama spot, you couldn't take #6 Arkansas. So #7 Boise State, champion of the Mountain West, would have filled the fourth spot. That was the only time a team below #6 made the playoff with the conference champs only restriction.
  • Some of the situations that put non-conference champions in the top four early in the BCS era were corrected by revising the ranking process.
    • The most blatant situation occurred in 2003 when Oklahoma stayed #1 in the final poll despite being blasted 35-7 by Kansas State in the Big 12 championship game.
    • That was the only time in the 14 seasons where the #1 team did not win its conference.
    • The embarrassment was corrected before the next season by counting the two human polls separately rather than combining them, thereby reducing the computer component from 1/2 to 1/3.

After doing this analysis, I am more sympathetic to those who argue that the semifinals should include the top four regardless of their conference. But what happened to my beloved Tigers still sticks in my craw from last season. It will be interesting to see how that decision plays out. The TV networks apparently want the "best four" to lend more credibility to the event. But the result, about half the time, as my analysis shows, will be to negate the outcomes of some crucial regular season games.

As you can see in the second table above, the bowl hosts spread out with the Fiesta staging one more game than the Sugar. The most interesting point about the bowls is that the Orange Bowl would have hosted the first five years of the BCS but no more after that. That's due to the fact that either Florida State or Miami (or both in 2000) finished in the Top Four every year from 1998-2002. However, neither has crashed the top four since. The ACC champ finished in the top four just once from 2003-present (#3 Virginia Tech in 2007).

This process also made me realize why the conference commissioners want to award the semifinal games to the bowls with contracts with the conferences of the #1 and #2 teams. A bidding war will ensue among bowls to maintain their tie-ins or get in on the action. You know Jerry Jones and the Cotton Bowl folks would like nothing better than to be the automatic destination for the Big 12 kings. And the Sugar Bowl may have to outbid the Orange Bowl and upstarts such as the Chick-fil-A Bowl and even the Cotton if the latter doesn't lock up the Big 12. It's also possible the Big East will improve its standing with the Orange Bowl or the Fiesta Bowl, especially since Boise State will now play football in that conference starting in 2013.

About This Site
This site is devoted primarily to college and pro football. The unique feature of this site is the publication each fall of the author's rankings of all FBS college football teams and similar rankings for the NFL. I live in New Orleans and am a graduate of LSU and FSU. So I present a Southern and particularly an SEC point of view but one that is reasonably objective. Twice a month, I also publish a Football Magazine with stories from the past and a Baseball Magazine with a similar format. Less frequently, there's a Basketball Magazine.
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