Analysis of Final Four and Bowls Plus One College Football Proposals

This page compares four plans on the basis of how they would have been implemented for each season of the BCS (1998-2006). All rankings cited below are from that year's final BCS standings.

  1. Final Four: pair #1 vs #4 and #2 vs #3; winners play in championship game
  2. Modified Final Four: same as Plan 1 except that each participant must be a conference champion (or Notre Dame if it ranks higher that one of the four highest-ranked champs)
  3. Bowls Plus One: bowls keep their traditional host champions; i.e., Rose = Big-10 vs Pac-10; Sugar = SEC vs at-large; Fiesta = Big 12 vs at-large; Orange = ACC vs Big East. Compute the final BCS rankings after these bowls and pair #1 vs #2 in the championship game.
  4. Modified Bowls Plus One: same as Plan 3 except Sugar, Fiesta, and Orange agree to host (based on which conference champ is highest ranked) a game pairing the two highest ranked teams not in the Rose Bowl (but avoiding a rematch of a regular season contest). The expectation would be that the winner of that game would be one of the teams in the championship game.

So what would have happened under each of these plans in each of the nine BCS seasons thus far? After you read the year-by-year analysis below, you can read my summary of pros and cons of the plans.

1998
Final Four
#1 Tennessee (12-0) vs #4 Ohio State (10-1)
#2 Florida State (11-1) vs #3 Kansas State (11-1)
Bowls Plus One
Rose Bowl: #5 UCLA (10-1) vs #9 Wisconsin (10-2)
Sugar Bowl: #1 Tennessee (12-0) vs #3 Kansas State (11-1)
Orange Bowl: #2 Florida State (11-1) vs #15 Syracuse (8-3)
Fiesta Bowl: #6 Texas A&M (11-2) vs #4 Ohio State (10-1)
Assuming higher ranked teams win, #1 Tennessee and #2 Florida State play for championship.
Modified Final Four
#1 Tennessee (12-0) vs #6 Texas A&M (11-2)
#2 Florida State (11-1) vs #5 UCLA (10-1)
Modified Bowls Plus One
Rose Bowl: #5 UCLA (10-1) vs #9 Wisconsin (10-2)
Sugar Bowl: #1 Tennessee (12-0) vs #2 Florida State (11-1)
Orange Bowl: #3 Kansas State (11-1) vs #15 Syracuse (8-3)
Fiesta Bowl: #6 Texas A&M (11-2) vs #4 Ohio State (10-1)
Sugar Bowl winner plays next highest ranked team for championship.
What actually happened: #1 Tennessee defeated #2 Florida State in the Fiesta Bowl after FSU jumped to #2 when undefeated Kansas State lost in the Big 12 Championship Game and undefeated UCLA lost to Miami on the first Saturday in December.

1999
Final Four
#1 Florida State (11-0) vs #4 Alabama (10-2)
#2 Virginia Tech (11-0) vs #3 Nebraska (11-1)
Bowls Plus One
Rose Bowl: #7 Wisconsin (9-2) vs #22 Stanford (8-3)
Sugar Bowl: #4 Alabama (10-2) vs #8 Michigan (9-2)
Orange Bowl: #1 Florida State (11-0) vs #2 Virginia Tech (11-0)
Fiesta Bowl: #3 Nebraska (11-1) vs #5 Tennessee (9-2)
Orange Bowl winner would play Nebraska or Alabama for the championship.
Modified Final Four
Same as above since all four teams were conference champions.
Modified Bowls Plus One
Same as above because #1 vs #2 in Orange Bowl.
What actually happened: "The BCS formula worked to perfection" (to quote the BCS website) as the only two undefeated teams played in the Sugar Bowl, with FSU defeating Va. Tech.

2000
Final Four
#1 Oklahoma (12-0) vs #4 Washington (10-1)
#2 Florida State (11-1) vs #3 Miami (10-1)
(FSU-Miami repeat of regular season game – swap #3 and 4 to avoid this)
Bowls Plus One
Rose Bowl: #4 Washington (10-1) vs #24 Purdue (8-3)
Sugar Bowl: #7 Florida (10-2) vs #8 Nebraska (9-2)
Orange Bowl: #2 Florida State (11-1) vs #3 Miami (10-1)
Fiesta Bowl: #1 Oklahoma (12-0) vs #5 Virginia Tech (11-1)
Oklahoma (assuming it wins Fiesta) plays FSU-Miami winner for championship.
Modified Final Four
Same as above since all four teams were conference champions.
Modified Bowls Plus One
Rose Bowl: #4 Washington (10-1) vs #24 Purdue (8-3)
Sugar Bowl: #7 Florida (10-2) vs #5 Virginia Tech (11-1)
Orange Bowl: #3 Miami (10-1) vs #8 Nebraska (9-2)
Fiesta Bowl: #1 Oklahoma (12-0) vs #2 Florida State (11-1)
Fiesta Bowl winner plays Miami (if it wins Orange) or Washington.
What actually happened: Controversial #2 Florida State (because of its loss to #3 Miami in regular season) lost to #1 Oklahoma in Orange Bowl. Miami solidified its claim that it deserved to play Oklahoma by beating Florida in Sugar Bowl 37-20.

2001
Final Four
#1 Miami (11-0) vs #4 Oregon (10-1)
#2 Nebraska (11-1) vs #3 Colorado (10-2)
(Nebraska-Colorado repeat of regular season game – swap #3 and 4 to avoid this)
Bowls Plus One
Rose Bowl: #4 Oregon (10-1) vs #8 Illinois (10-1)
Sugar Bowl: #13 LSU (9-3) vs #2 Nebraska (11-1)
Orange Bowl: #1 Miami (11-0) vs #10 Maryland (10-1)
Fiesta Bowl: #3 Colorado (10-2) vs #5 Florida (9-2)
Miami plays Nebraska/Colorado/Oregon (based on their bowl performances) for championship.
Modified Final Four
#1 Miami (11-0) vs #8 Illinois (10-1)
#3 Colorado (10-2) vs #4 Oregon (10-1)
Modified Bowls Plus One
Rose Bowl: #4 Oregon (10-1) vs #8 Illinois (10-1)
Sugar Bowl: #13 LSU (9-3) vs #10 Maryland (10-1)
Orange Bowl: #1 Miami (11-0) vs #2 Nebraska (11-1)
Fiesta Bowl: #3 Colorado (10-2) vs #5 Florida (9-2)
Orange Bowl winner plays Colorado or Oregon (unless both lose) for championship.
What actually happened: As the only undefeated team, Miami was clear choice for Rose Bowl. However, #2 was highly disputed again. LSU upset Tennessee in SEC championship game to muddy the picture. Nebraska finished #2 in final BCS poll despite 62-36 shellacking by Colorado in season finale. After beating Texas for Big 12 championship, Buffs made solid claim to #2 as did Pac-10 champ Oregon. Miami trounced Nebraska as expected in Rose Bowl for its 23rd straight win.

2002
Final Four
#1 Miami (12-0) vs #4 USC (10-2)
#2 Ohio State (13-0) vs #3 Georgia (12-1)
Bowls Plus One
Rose Bowl: #2 Ohio State (13-0) vs #6 Washington State (10-2)
Sugar Bowl: #3 Georgia (12-1) vs #4 USC (10-2)
Orange Bowl: #1 Miami (12-0) vs #14 Florida State (9-4)
Fiesta Bowl: #7 Oklahoma (11-2) vs #5 Iowa (11-1)
Miami plays Ohio State for championship (with Georgia-USC winner replacing either if they lose).
Modified Final Four
#1 Miami (12-0) vs #6 Washington State (10-2)
#2 Ohio State (13-0) vs #3 Georgia (12-1)
Modified Bowls Plus One
Rose Bowl: #2 Ohio State (13-0) vs #6 Washington State (10-2)
Sugar Bowl: #4 USC (10-2) vs #14 Florida State (9-4)
Orange Bowl: #1 Miami (12-0) vs #3 Georgia (12-1)
Fiesta Bowl: #7 Oklahoma (11-2) vs #5 Iowa (11-1)
Miami-Georgia winner plays Ohio State for championship.
What actually happened: "The BCS formula created a national championship matchup for the ages" (to quote the BCS site again) when the only undefeateds, Miami and Ohio State, played an OT thriller with the Buckeyes prevailing.

2003
Final Four
#1 Oklahoma (12-1) vs #4 Michigan (10-2)
#2 LSU (12-1) vs #3 USC (11-1)
Bowls Plus One
Rose Bowl: #3 USC (11-1) vs #4 Michigan (10-2)
Sugar Bowl: #2 LSU (12-1) vs #1 Oklahoma (12-1)
Orange Bowl: #7 Florida State (10-2) vs #9 Miami (10-2)
Fiesta Bowl: #10 Kansas State (11-3) vs #5 Ohio State (10-2)
Sugar and Rose Bowl winners meet.
Modified Final Four
#2 LSU (12-1) vs #4 Michigan (10-2)
#3 USC (11-1) vs #7 Florida State (10-2)
Modified Bowls Plus One
Same as above because #1 vs #2 in Sugar Bowl.
What actually happened: Split national champions as LSU beat Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl for BCS championship while USC downed Michigan in Rose to finish #1 in AP.

2004
Final Four
#1 USC (12-0) vs #4 Texas (10-1)
#2 Oklahoma (12-0) vs #3 Auburn (12-0)
Bowls Plus One
Rose Bowl: #1 USC (12-0) vs #13 Michigan (9-2)
Sugar Bowl: #3 Auburn (12-0) vs #4 Texas (10-1)
Orange Bowl: #8 Virginia Tech (10-2) vs #21 Pittsburgh (8-3)
Fiesta Bowl: #2 Oklahoma (12-0) vs #6 Utah (11-0)
If USC, Auburn, and Oklahoma all win, final poll results determine which two meet as if bowls were never played.
Modified Final Four
#1 USC (12-0) vs #8 Virginia Tech (10-2)
#2 Oklahoma (12-0) vs #3 Auburn (12-0)
Modified Bowls Plus One
Rose Bowl: #1 USC (12-0) vs #13 Michigan (9-2)
Sugar Bowl: #4 Texas (10-1) vs #6 Utah (11-0)
Orange Bowl: #8 Virginia Tech (10-2) vs #21 Pittsburgh (8-3)
Fiesta Bowl: #2 Oklahoma (12-0) vs #3 Auburn (12-0)
USC plays Fiesta Bowl winner.
What actually happened: USC clobbered Oklahoma in Orange Bowl while Auburn completed undefeated season in Sugar Bowl with no chance at championship.

2005
Final Four
#1 USC (12-0) vs #4 Ohio State (9-2)
#2 Texas (12-0) vs #3 Penn State (10-1)
Bowls Plus One
Rose Bowl: #1 USC (12-0) vs #3 Penn State (10-1)
Sugar Bowl: #7 Georgia (10-2) vs #6 Notre Dame (9-2)
Orange Bowl: #11 West Virginia (10-1) vs #22 Florida State (8-4)
Fiesta Bowl: #2 Texas (12-0) vs #4 Ohio State (9-2)
Rose and Fiesta winners play.
Modified Final Four
#1 USC (12-0) vs #7 Georgia (10-2)
#2 Texas (12-0) vs #3 Penn State (10-1)
Modified Bowls Plus One
Same as above because #2 vs #4 in Fiesta Bowl.
What actually happened: Texas defeated USC in perhaps the greatest game ever.

2006
Final Four
#1 Ohio State (12-0) vs #4 LSU (10-2)
#2 Florida (12-1) vs #3 Michigan (11-1)
Bowls Plus One
Rose Bowl: #1 Ohio State (12-0) vs #5 USC (10-2)
Sugar Bowl: #2 Florida (12-1) vs #3 Michigan (11-1)
Orange Bowl: #6 Louisville (11-1) vs #14 Wake Forest (11-2)
Fiesta Bowl: #10 Oklahoma (11-2) vs #4 LSU (10-2) (or #8 Boise State if BCS rules require their participation)
Rose and Sugar winners play.
Modified Final Four
#1 Ohio State (12-0) vs #6 Louisville (11-1)
#2 Florida (12-1) vs #5 USC (10-2)
Modified Bowls Plus One
Same as above because #2 and #3 play in Sugar.
What actually happened: Florida was a controversial #2 in the final BCS poll after USC was upset by UCLA. Michigan claimed it deserved #2 since its only loss was to #1 Ohio State. Florida trounced Ohio State in the championship game.

Analysis of the Above Plans