Golden's 2018 College Football Predictions
LSU Prediction for 2018 - UPDATE 10/17/18
I fully intended to post this before LSU's first game Sunday night. But for reasons I won't bore you with, I wasn't able to do that. So I'll write it as I would have before the game but with the hindsight of the first game under our belts.
I'm echoing what all the preseason magazines have said when I declare that LSU's defense will be rock solid so that the degree of success for 2018 depends on how well QB Joe Burrow plays within Steve Ensminger's offense.
- I decided to rank LSU's units compared to their 2017 counterparts with a +/- system. 0 means the unit is about the same as last season. Of course, 0 is not bad if the unit was very good last year like the LBs and DBs.
Offensive Line |
0 |
|
Defensive Line |
+ |
Receivers |
+ |
|
LBs |
0 |
QB |
+ |
|
DBs |
0 |
RBs |
- |
|
Special Teams |
+ |
- Four plusses and only one minus means LSU should be better this season.
- But the schedule is tougher than 2017's.
--Auburn on the road and Florida on the road again with the Gators expected to be much improved under Dan Mullen. So that's two victories from '17 that will be hard to duplicate. TIGERS WON AT AUBURN BUT LOST AT FLORIDA.
--The Tigers face the two CFP finalists, Alabama and Georgia, albeit at home. GEORGIA IS AN UNEXPECTED VICTORY.
--Jimbo Fisher's first Texas A&M squad on the road to end the season. I think it's safe to say the Tigers won't go 6-0 against A&M under Fisher the way they did under Sumlin.
- We can safely put the SE Louisiana, Louisiana Tech, Ole Miss, Arkansas, and Rice games (and now Miami) in the win column with the Rebels the likeliest upset winner. OLE MISS DIDN'T PULL THE UPSET.
- To equal last year's 9-3 regular season, LSU must win one of the four toughest games - Auburn, Florida, Georgia, and Alabama. And they must win the two "swing" games that could go either way - Mississippi State and Texas A&M. LSU HAS BEATEN AUBURN AND GEORGIA. THEY ARE FAVORED OVER MISSISSIPPI STATE.
- Even if the Tigers lose all four of the toughest games and win only one of the two swing games, that's 7-5 and a bowl game. SINCE THE TIGERS HAVE SIX WINS AND ARKANSAS AND RICE ARE YET TO BE PLAYED. SO EIGHT VICTORIES ARE ASSURED.
- After watching the Miami game, I'll add this: If Burrow and the offense continue to improve, the Tigers could beat both Mississippi State and Texas A&M to get eight wins. Upset one of the four "biggies" and you're at 9-3 again, which would be an outstanding season against this schedule.
- So between 7-5 and 9-3, I'll pick the middle figure: 8-4. LSU WILL HAVE TO LOSE TO ALL THREE TO MISS. STATE, ALABAMA, AND TEXAS A&M TO FINISH 8-4.
My College Predictions for 2018
Composite College Preseason Rankings
Here's my compilation of nine preseason rankings.
Pos. |
Team |
Average |
1 |
Alabama |
1.50 |
2 |
Clemson |
1.50 |
3 |
Georgia |
3.13 |
4 |
Oklahoma |
4.63 |
5 |
Ohio State |
6.50 |
6 |
LSU |
6.63 |
7 |
Michigan |
6.63 |
8 |
Notre Dame |
8.25 |
9 |
Florida |
8.38 |
10 |
Oregon |
11.25 |
11 |
Texas |
11.63 |
12 |
Texas A&M |
12.50 |
13 |
Washington |
13.75 |
14 |
Utah |
14.75 |
15 |
Auburn |
15.50 |
16 |
Penn State |
17.13 |
17 |
Michigan State |
17.63 |
18 |
Iowa |
19.29 |
19 |
Central Florida |
21.13 |
20 |
Iowa State |
22.43 |
|
21 |
Miami (FL) |
23.00 |
22 |
Nebraska |
23.38 |
23 |
Wisconsin |
24.00 |
24 |
Missouri |
24.40 |
25 |
Mississippi State |
25.00 |
26 |
Washington State |
25.29 |
27 |
Stanford |
26.14 |
28 |
Virginia Tech |
29.14 |
29 |
Syracuse |
31.33 |
30 |
Boise State |
32.00 |
31 |
TCU |
32.50 |
32 |
Florida State |
33.00 |
33 |
South Carolina |
34.33 |
34 |
Northwestern |
35.00 |
35 |
USC |
35.50 |
36 |
Cincinnati |
35.83 |
37 |
Army |
36.14 |
38 |
Virginia |
36.86 |
39 |
Baylor |
37.20 |
40 |
Minnesota |
38.50 |
|
My predictions for the 2019 season:
First, LSU:
- I'll be disappointed if LSU doesn't win 10 games in the regular season. If the Tigers beat Texas on the road in Week 2, look out. This could be quite a season.
- Led by senior QB Joe Burrow running the RPO system with a talented set of receivers, the offense should be better than any Tiger O since 2011. And the defense has a chance to be even better than last year despite losing Butkus Award Winner Devin White at MLB. Dave Aranda has depth and can mix and match players to best handle each opponent.
- The key is the offensive line. There's never been an outstanding team that didn't have a very good offensive line. This unit must stay healthy so as not to suffer the fate of last year's bunch, when every starter missed multiple games or played at less than 100%.
- The schedule is favorable with Florida, Auburn, and Texas A&M at home.
- The LSU coach on the hot seat is not Ed Orgeron but offensive coordinator Steve Ensminger. Steve has had two shots at Alabama, both in Tiger Stadium, and has produced zero points. If the offensive overall isn't much more productive and the Tigers don't score at least 14 points at Bama, we could see new passing game coordinator Joe Brady promoted to O-coordinator for 2020.
Now my predictions based on the compilation above:
Don't be surprised if these team don't finish as high as the composite rankings above project:
- Central Florida (#19) - The Knights are two years removed from Coach Scott Frost, and dynamic QB McKenzie Milton will miss the year because of the gruesome leg injury that caused him to miss the Fiesta Bowl against LSU.
- Michigan (#7) - The Wolverines lose significant talent on defense, and Jim Harbaugh won't inspire confidence until he beats Ohio State.
- Oregon (#10) - Led by QB Justin Herbert, the Ducks are tested immediately against Auburn. But the defense is suspect.
- Penn State (#16) - The young Nittany Lions will start strong against a soft schedule but must run the gauntlet through Michigan, Michigan State, and Ohio State at the end. The starting QB has just seven career passing attempts. Plus storm clouds are gathering over this program again.
Don't be surprised if these team finish higher than their composite rankings project:
- Florida State (#32) - Willie Taggart's teams have improved from year one to year two everywhere he's coached. With a new offensive line coach and a good recruiting class, the Seminoles will do better than #32.
- USC (#35) - The Trojans will rebound from a disastrous finish in '18 when they lost four games in which they had double-digit leads.
- Purdue (not in Top 40) - Jeff Brohm's third Boilermaker team will have a favorable schedule as they avoid three of the Big Ten's top four teams.
- Virginia Tech (#28) - The Hokies' defense was very young last year and, to make matters worse, they lost five starters to injury. That won't happen this year.
- Tennessee (not in Top 40) - The Vols will improve considerably in Jeremy Pruitt's second year at the helm.
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