2018 College Football Preview: Athlon Sports

Athlon's Top Ten

  1. Alabama
  2. Clemson
  3. Georgia
  4. Ohio State
  5. Michigan
  6. Miami (FL)
  7. Auburn
  8. Washington
  9. Wisconsin
  10. Oklahoma

SEC teams in the top 25: 14 Mississippi State, 17 Florida, 25 Texas A&M

2018 College Football Playoff Predictions

  • Orange Bowl: Clemson vs Georgia
  • Cotton Bowl: Alabama vs Ohio State

LSU is ranked #26. (The issue went to press before QB Joe Burrow transferred from Ohio State. In the section on "QB Battles," Athlon projected Myles Brennan as the winner.)
The Tigers are projected to go 7-5 (4-4 SEC) and meet TCU in the Texas Bowl.

In Lindy's Top Ten Unit Rankings, LSU is #6 in LBs and #7 in DBs.

Athlon asked each of its editors to answer some questions.

Coaches on the Hot Seat

  1. David Beaty, Kansas (3-33 in three seasons)
  2. Bob Davie, New Mexico (30-45 in six seasons)
  3. Brad Lambert, Charlotte (17-41, five seasons)
  4. Scottie Montgomery, East Carolina (6-18, two seasons)
  5. Mike Jinks, Bowling Green (6-18, two seasons)
  6. Kliff Kingsbury, Texas Tech (30-33, five seasons)
  7. Lovie Smith, Illinois (5-19, two seasons)

Ed Orgeron is not listed even in the "Getting Warm" section, which includes Derek Mason of Vanderbilt.

LSU D-Coordinator Dave Aranda is listed #1 in the "Coaches on the Rise."
LSU ranked 12th nationally in total defense, and that was the worst ranking for an Aranda-coached defense in his five seasons at Power 5 schools. Texas A&M made a big push for Aranda in the offseason, but he opted to remain at LSU after signing a reported four-year, $10 million contract. It would be a major surprise if he were not a head coach somewhere before that deal expired.

Ranking 2017's New Coaches
Ed Orgeron
is ranked #12, right behind Ole Miss's Matt Luke. Here's the writeup for Orgeron:
LSU's 2017 season will always be remembered for the loss at home to Troy, but the Tigers managed to win nine games and went 6-2 in the SEC, their best mark since 2012. This program continues to have issues on offense, however, and the Matt Canada experiment lasted only one season. Steve Ensminger will call the plays this year - much to the dismay of the Tiger faithful.

Ranking 2018's New Coaches

  1. Scott Frost, Nebraska
  2. Chip Kelly, UCLA
  3. Dan Mullen, Florida
  4. Jimbo Fisher, Texas A&M
  5. Willie Taggart, Florida State
  6. Joe Moorhead, Mississippi State
  7. Chad Morris, Arkansas
  8. Kevin Sumlin, Arizona
  9. Steve Campbell, South Alabama
  10. Mario Cristobal, Oregon
  11. Jeremy Pruitt, Tennessee
  12. Billy Napier, LA Lafayette

Only three SEC coaches have been at their current school for at least five seasons.
Who are they?

Top Coordinator Hires for 2018
1. Mike Elko, DC Texas A&M
New Texas A&M coach Texas A&M lured Texas A&M away from Notre Dame to fix an area that has plagued this program since it joined the SEC. The Aggies have not once finished in the top half of the league in total defense and have ranked no higher than seventh in scoring defense.
3. Todd Grantham, DC Florida
Grantham is making the move from Mississippi State to Florida with new Gator head coach Dan Mullen. Grantham did a tremendous job in his only season in Starkville; the Bulldogs made dramatic improvements in total defense ... and scoring defense ...
6. Pete Golding, Co-DC Alabama
Nick Saban plucked Golding, a rising star in the coaching world, off of the UTSA staff as Alabama's 10th assistant and give him the title of co-defensive coordinator and inside LBs coach. During his two years at UTSA, the Roadrunners ranked first and fourth in Conference USA in total defense and first and third in scoring defense.

QB Transfers to/from SEC schools
Woody Barrett, Auburn to Kent State (via JC)
Keller Chryst, Stanford to Tennessee
Shea Patterson, Ole Miss to Michigan
Terry Wilson, Oregon to Kentucky

Breakout Players among the 15 listed that play for SEC schools
LB Dylan Moses, Alabama
QB Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama

Athlon asked each of its editors to answer some questions.

Which team not in our preseason top 10 has the best chance to make the College Football Playoff?

  1. Mitch Light
    This is not a vintage Florida State team, but it wouldn't shock me if the Seminoles jumped back into the national discussion in Year 1 of the Willie Taggart era. The schedule is not kind ... but few teams nationally will have more talent than Florida State.
  2. Braden Gall
    Texas is my pick because the Big 12 champion will have a good opportunity to get into the Playoff, and the Longhorns could have a high-quality non-conference win as USC comes to town early in the season. If the QB position stabilizes, Texas could still lose a league game and make a surprise trip to the four-team tournament.
  3. Steven Lassan
    I'm going to take the Big Ten tandem just outside of our top 10 in Michigan State and Penn State. The Big Ten has five teams ranked inside of our top 12 for 2018, and the winner of this conference should be in the mix for a playoff spot.

Which top-10 team scares you the most? Which team do you think we might have over-ranked?

  • Mitch Light
    Miami. The Canes were one of the surprise teams in the nation in 2017, winning their first 10 games and climbing to the No. 2 spot in the CFB Playoff Rankings. This was a good team, but it was also a team that won a bunch of close games and was probably never as good as its ranking. ... They should be better this season, but until Mark Richt figures out the QB situation ... it's fair to question whether this is a legit top-10 team.
  • Steven Lassan
    I don't think Auburn is significantly over-ranked, but I could see coach Gus Malzahn's team slipping just outside of the top 10. Jarrett Stidham is one of the best in the SEC, and he's surrounded by a capable group of playmakers on the outside. However, the offensive line will be revamped after losing four starters - as well as position coach Herb Hand, who went to Texas. That's a huge concern with matchups against Washington, Mississippi State, Georgia, LSU and Alabama.
  • Braden Gall
    Ohio State is my choice. [This was before Urban Meyer's suspension.] The Buckeyes may or may not have a replacement for QB J.T. Barrett and definitely have one of the toughest league schedules in the country. The could ... win the Big Ten and still miss the playoff because of multiple losses.

Who was the best hire of the offseason?

  • All three writers chose Scott Frost of Nebraska.

What was the most puzzling hire?

  • Mitch Light and Steven Lassan
    Herm Edwards. Light: I've been at Athlon Sports for 17 years and have written about the new coaches in the magazine every year, and I have never been more perplexed by a hire than Arizona States decision to hire Edwards.
  • Braden Gall
    It's Jeremy Pruitt. A guy who was likely outside the top-15 candidates when the search started is now the head coach at Tennessee ... He might be just the right blend of coaching talent and work ethic - or could he have no idea what it takes to be a big-time SEC head coach at a powerhouse institution.

Name three Group of 5 head coaches who will be in Power 5 jobs next season.

  • Mitch Light
    Neal Brown of Troy, Seth Littell of North Texas, Jason Candle of Toledo.
  • Steven Lassan
    Neal Brown of Troy, Seth Littell of North Texas, and Scott Satterfield of Appalachian State
  • Braden Gall
    For the second year in a row, Bryan Harsin (Boise State) definitely has to be on this list. I'll also add Neal Brown of Troy and Blake Anderson of Arkansas State.

Give us a program on the rise.

  • Mitch Light
    I'm not sure what Iowa State's ceiling is, but I'm confident the Cyclones will be a factor in the Big 12 as long as Matt Campbell is at the school.
  • Steven Lassan
    I wouldn't expect a Big Ten West Division title in 2018, but Nebraska is clearly going in the right direction with Scott Frost at the controls.
  • Braden Gall
    Florida. Even as he was winning back-to-back SEC East titles, Jim McElwain never seemed to win over the fan base. Now, with Dan Mullen in charge, the Gator faithful finally believe this program can return to its spot among the elite in college football.

What about a program on the decline?

  • Steven Lassan
    LSU. It might be premature to put LSU in this space, but this program seems to be headed in the wrong direction compared to the rest of the SEC West.
  • Braden Gall
    LSU. While I am openly rooting for Coach O to succeed, he hasn't proven that he is capable of winning at a high level in Power 5 football. So the Tigers have questions at head coach and massive unknowns at QB (sound familiar?) as well as an offensive coordinator who feels like a Les Miles clone. With a roster that simply does not seem up to LSU standards and a brutal schedule, getting to a bowl game might be considered a solid season.
  • Mitch Light
    I'm not sure what Iowa State's ceiling is, but I'm confident the Cyclones will be a factor in the Big 12 as long as Matt Campbell is at the school.

Excerpts from the LSU article.
If you piled up the question marks about this 2018 LSU football team, they would form a rickety stack as high as the double-standard goalposts at either end of Tiger Stadium.
Who will be the QB? What will the offense look like? Who will run the ball? Who will be the CBs? Who, if anyone, can kick the ball consistently through Tiger Stadium's aforementioned uprights? ...
This is pretty much Orgeron's team now. The Tigers have only three remaining players - WR Dee Anderson, TE Foster Moreau and S Ed Paris - who started under Miles in 2016. ... Orgeron: I know next year is critical for us.
It appeared significant change was at hand entering the 2017 season, when Orgeron made Matt Canada his offensive coordinator. But Orgeron and Canada clashed personally - and Orgeron found Canada's misdirection and shifts intolerable. ... Orgeron and Ensminger are likely to be on the same page. Orgeron has made plain his desire to run the kind of offense USC employed when he was an assistant under Pete Carroll - a pro-style attack with play-action pass principles. Ensminger is prepared to give it to him. In fact, the Tigers may be poised to do something they haven't done in a long, long time: Use the pass to set up the run. ...
For the first time since at least 1974, LSU enters a season in which none if its returning RBs has scored a TD. ...
Jonathan Giles. Remember the name. Whoever plays QB will surely spend a lot of time throwing to the junior transfer, who had 69 catches for 1,158y and 13 TDs in 2016 at Texas Tech. Giles garnered so much respect so quickly he was awarded the No. 7 jersey, previously worn by such LSU greats as Fournette, Tyrann Mathieu and Bert Jones. ...
LSU is expected to get the benefit of Aranda's defensive scheme in full bloom for the first time in his three years at LSU. [We want to] let Dave run his total package, Orgeron says. He's been limited in some of the things he's done. I think you're going to see a Dave Aranda package that's going to be fantastic. Dave can be very multiple and very creative. We were very basic his first two years here. He wanted to get the fundamentals down. Aranda often joked last year that LSU had the best ineligible defensive line in the country with Texas Tech transfer Breiden Fehoko at end and Tyler Shelvin (academics) at tackle. ...
LSU remains the most physical team in a physical conference. Only 54.1% of opponent tackles were solo tackles - the lowest rate in not only the SEC but the entire country. The national average was more than 20 percentage points higher at 74.2 percent.
(In 2017) With expectations off after a shaky 3-2 start, LSU quietly began overachieving. The Tigers beat the spread in each of the season's final seven games, winning six outright and outpacing their Vegas line by more than seven points per game. A big reason for this: turnovers. Their turnover margin was plus-1 in the first five games and plus-7 in the next seven.

Opposing coaches size up LSU
I like Ed. I really do. He can win there, and maybe he can develop into a guy that stays there a while. But he has to let his coaches coach. What he did with Matt Canada was ridiculous. You paid him all that money to get on board, and then a couple weeks into the season, you're bailing on him. ... The QB has been a problem there since Les first started out. ... If a rebuilt (offensive) line isn't a big enough question, who are they going to throw to, and who's going to run with power like they always have to keep pressure off the QB? ... Ensminger is your boy to run that show? That hire will define Ed, no question about it.

Quick Quiz: Who are the two SEC head coaches who were on Nick Saban's 2004 (last) staff at LSU?

LSU Players on Athlon's Preseason All-America Team
First team defense – LB Devin White
First team defense – CB Greedy Williams

SEC PICKS
SEC WEST SEC EAST
  1. Alabama
  2. Auburn
  3. Mississippi State
  4. Texas A&M
  5. LSU
  6. Ole Miss
  7. Arkansas
  1. Georgia
  2. Florida
  3. South Carolina
  4. Missouri
  5. Kentucky
  6. Tennessee
  7. Vanderbilt

LSU players on Athlon's All-SEC Teams:

  • 1st team defense
    LB Devin White, CB Greedy Williams
  • 3rd team offense
    OL Garrett Brumfield
  • 3rd team defense
    DL Rashard Lawrence
SEC Unit Rankings for LSU
QB - 11 (pre-Burrow)
RB - 12
WR/TE - 11
OL - 6

DL - 6
LB - 6
DB - 3

The only national ranking for an LSU unit is DBs #8.

By the Numbers
35.4
Percent of Power 5 schools (23 of 65) whose current coach has been in place for at least five seasons
12
SEC teams with returning starters at QB
6
SEC teams (counting Ole Miss with interim Matt Luke becoming full-time) with new head coaches for 2018.
10
Consecutive years that Alabama has held the #1 ranking at some point in the season.
6
National championships for Nick Saban, more than the rest of the active FBS head coaching ranks combined
7
Consecutive seasons Alabama ranked #1 in the consensus recruiting rankings until this year when Georgia took the top spot
1 Seasons since 2000 in which Texas A&M achieved double-figure wins
2 Consecutive seasons in which Georgia's starting QB the previous year (Greyson Lambert then Jacob Eason) started the season opener, and then a true freshman (Eason, then Jake Fromm) took over in Week 2 and went the rest of the way.
2012 Last time LSU finished outside the consensus top-10 recruiting rankings before 2018.
$2M Amount Florida agreed to pay Colorado State for a game in Gainesville this season in expection that Jim McElwain would be coaching against his former team.
5 Defensive coordinators at Mississippi State the last five years.
2 Schools that have had a 1,000y rusher in each of the last nine seasons: Auburn and Boise State.
1987 Last season that Auburn defeated both Georgia and Alabama on the road.
1-5
Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh's record against Michigan State and Ohio State

Interesting Quotations
Anonymous opposing coaches size up LSU's SEC opponents for '18

  • Alabama
    If only we were all so lucky to have the problem Nick has: Two QBs with the talent to win it all. But I absolutely think he's going to have to manage that dual-QB problem like he never has had to. ... Nick will do what's best for the team, not what's best for the ego of either of the two players. ... The one thing that is more impressive than any with that program is the way they just reload with not only players but assistant coaches. ... They're losing a lot on defense; that front will be completely retooled. ... They've struggled in the secondary at times over the last three of four seasons and have given up some big plays. They gamble a lot - something you can do when you get after the QB like they do.
  • Arkansas
    I feel really bad for Chad (Morris), who has been put in a difficult situation. That roster was built for Bielema's run-first, play-action offense. Chad will spend at least the first two years turning over that roster to fit his scheme ... One thing Chad will benefit from is the way Bret ran a clean program. There won't be character problems in that locker room. ... New guys are there because the other guy failed. The other guy usually failed because he lost the team. Bret never lost that team. ... The best thing Chad will do for Arkansas - and I think he's a terrific Xs and Os guy - is recruit.
  • Auburn
    It took more than half the season, but Jarrett Stidham really turned into a legit SEC QB. ... it took time before Gus and his staff trusted him, and I guarantee he's going to take a huge step from where he was last season. ... Auburn surprised folks last year because they were so good on the lines of scrimmage. Will Muschamp was there for one year as defensive coordinator, but he made such an impact on the way Auburn recruited. He pushed the idea of building from the inside out, from the lines to the skill players. That's where Auburn is rightnow, that's why they will continue to grow under Gus. ... Gus' offense, for some reason, has been treated as a high-flyin', pass-happy offense. Gus' offense is based on power running, pure and simple.
  • Mississippi State
    I've heard about how Joe Moorhead doesn't know the Mississippi State "culture" or that he doesn't "understand the South." Come on. You know what every high school recruit and every mamma and daddy understand? Winning. You think Dan Mullen understood it when he first got there? He's from New Hampshire. ... Joe will put those kids in position to win on offense, and he made a critical hire at defensive coordinator (Bob Shoop), who knows how to recruit this league and how to defend it. ... I don't know if (QB) Nick Fitzgerald can be ready by August. That was a brutal injury.
  • Ole Miss
    I don't care what anyone says or how they try to spin it there, this is dead program walking. At least for a couple of years. They lost an elite QB and receiver because they didn't want to hang around for the NCAA fallout, and they're still dealing with that on the road in recruiting. ... The big thing right now is what happens with the NCAA. Once that gets resolved, you at least have a plan.
  • Texas A&M
    If Jimbo thinks the media was too harsh on him at FSU, wait until he finishes fourth again in the West. It's going to be a process there. ... To me, it just looked like those players weren't having fun on Saturdays and didn't take too well to coaching. That's what we talk about when we say a "culture change." Jimbo has a big one in front of him. ... It's not talent; they've got dudes on that team. Sometimes you just need to hear a different voice. Jimbo's will be unlike anything they've heard in a while there. He'll rattle some cages.
  • Florida
    Tennessee and Florida have some of the same problems. They have some good players, but they have made some mistakes - not so much from a talent perspective but from a character perspective. Player development is something they didn't do a great job of either. ... I don't know if Feleipe Franks is exactly what Dan Mullen wants at the QB position at Florida ... But I'm sure Dan will do a good job with him.
  • Georgia
    They took a huge leap last year. When they came on the field, you could tell that their bodies had changed from 2016 to 2017 - also their mindset and their confidence. ... I don't know that I've ever seen a team make the strides from one year to the next that Georgia did. I don't think that was a fluke by any stretch. ... I think it will be interesting this year, with what Fromm did last year, and then them bringing in Justin Fields, because some people believe Fields is a once-in-a-generation talent. I think that will be an interesting competition to watch in camp.
2018 College Football Preview: Lindy's Sports

Lindy's Top Ten

  1. Clemson
  2. Alabama
  3. Ohio State
  4. Georgia
  5. Wisconsin
  6. Oklahoma
  7. Miami (FL)
  8. Washington
  9. Auburn
  10. Michigan State

SEC teams in the top 25: 20 Mississippi State, 24 South Carolina

2018 College Football Playoff Predictions

  • Orange Bowl: Clemson vs Georgia
  • Cotton Bowl: Alabama vs Ohio State

LSU is ranked #30. (The issue went to press before QB Joe Burrow transferred from Ohio State.)
Among the Top 12 Conference Games, Lindy's ranks Georgia @ LSU (Oct. 13) #5.

In Lindy's projection of the top 5 seniors at each position for the 2019 NFL Draft, LSU's Garrett Brumfield is listed third at OG.

Lindy's Coaches on the Hot Seat

  1. Kliff Kingsbury, Texas Tech (30-33, five seasons)
  2. Derek Mason, Vanderbilt (18-31 in four seasons)
  3. David Beaty, Kansas (3-33 in three seasons)
  4. Kalani Sitake, Brigham Young (13-13 in two seasons0
  5. Lovie Smith, Illinois (5-19, two seasons)

Lindy's top 12 non-QB transfers includes #2 Jonathan Giles WR (Texas Tech to LSU)

Lindy's lists the Top 5 schools in 2018 recruiting by position. LSU is #1 at WR with these four signees, all from Louisiana:
Terrace Marshall 6-2 1/2, 195 Boosier City Parkway
JaMarr Chase 6-1, 195 Archbishop Rummel
Kenan Jones 6-3, 205 Berwick High
Jaray Jenkins 6-1, 175 Jena High

Under "Coordinator Shuffle" in the SEC section, Lindy's lists the five it finds "interesting."

3. Steve Ensminger, LSU O coordinator. The Tigers parted ways with high-priced Matt Canada after one seasons, despite high hopes that he would rejuvenate the offense. Ensminger has the trust of Ed Orgeron to take off the training wheels on the LSU attack ... but first he has to find a QB. (This was before Barrow transferred.)

LSU D-Coordinator Dave Aranda is listed #1 in the "Coaches on the Rise."
LSU ranked 12th nationally in total defense, and that was the worst ranking for an Aranda-coached defense in his five seasons at Power 5 schools. Texas A&M made a big push for Aranda in the offseason, but he opted to remain at LSU after signing a reported four-year, $10 million contract. It would be a major surprise if he were not a head coach somewhere before that deal expired.

Excerpts from the LSU article.
In an effort to rekindle its stodgy offense, LSU has turned to yesteryear in hopes that past success can translate into future accomplishments. And so, Steve Ensminger steps into a precarious situation as offensive coordinator, knowing full well his predecessor lasted only one bumpy ride of a season.
Last season's new coordinator Matt Canada spent much of the year at odds with coach Ed Orgeron, while Ensminger, as the TE coach, kept his distance. "Last year I was hesitant because it wasn't my offense," he said. "I knew I could call it. I just had to tweak some things. I was really hesitant to do it. I have a year now. It's my offense."
That sits well with Orgeron ... In fact, Orgeron wanted Ensminger to take the position permanently. Instead, Ensminger returned to coaching TEs, which he had been doing since 2010.
That all changed after the much-ballyhooed hire of Canada went awry amid his multiple shifts and movements that served as so much window dressing for the kind of run-heaving offense that hastened Miles's departure. ...
Now Ensminger's being asked to work the same kind of wonders he did in 2016, when he revitalized an attack that was averaging 18.0 points and 335.9 points per game. Under Ensminger, LSU dramatically improved in every offensive category and upped its average to 32 points and 464.9 ypg. ...
LSU must replace its entire backfield, including QB Danny Etling and RB Derrius Guice, who between them accounted for 3,714y and 31 TDs ...
Orgeron remains undaunted, convinced he has found "the best coach to lead LSU's offense in the next coming years." ...
With all due respect to Georgia's Butkus Award-winning and first-round ILB Roquan Smith, no one played the middle better in 2017 than White, who finished just four tackles behind his SEC rival despite playing two fewer games. White was LSU's best player as a true sophomore, more than doubling up LSU's next closest defender with 133 overall tackles, including 14 for loss and 4.5 sacks. ...

Anonymous opposing coaches on LSU
On Ed Orgeron: Who knows what Ed Orgeron is doing? I love Ed, but the chaos he's created on offense is a problem. He got rid of a pretty good offensive coordinator, they lose two NFL RBs and four offensive linemen, and Steve Ensminger is going to lead them to the promised land? I think some people in Baton Rouge are waiting for Orgeron to fail.
On state of program: LSU doesn't have the talent or the depth they used to have. I'm not sure what's happened in recruiting, but they've lost some really good players to out-of-state schools. And they've been hit hard by losing a lot of players in recent years early to the NFL draft. That's taken a toll.
On this season: At LSU, if they get eight wins, don't try to spin it like it's a good year, not while the guy in Tuscaloosa is winning 12 or 13.

LSU Players on Lindy's Preseason All-America Team
First team defense – LB Devin White (#1 ranked OLB)
First team defense – CB Greedy Williams (#1 ranked CB)

Lindy's gives the story of how Williams got his nickname:
His mother came to pick up the 2-month-old Williams from his aunt after her babysitting stint. The aunt remarked that Williams was a "Greedy Deedy" because he had consumed two to three bottles of baby formula. Williams' mother liked the term, dropped Deedy ... and from that point on Andraez gave way to Greedy.
Lindy's SEC PICKS
SEC WEST SEC EAST
  1. Alabama
  2. Auburn
  3. Mississippi State
  4. Texas A&M
  5. LSU
  6. Ole Miss
  7. Arkansas
  1. Georgia
  2. South Carolina
  3. Florida
  4. Missouri
  5. Kentucky
  6. Tennessee
  7. Vanderbilt

LSU players on Lindy's All-SEC Teams:

  • 1st team defense
    LB Devin White, CB Greedy Williams
  • 3rd team offense
    OL Garrett Brumfield
    P Zach Von Rosenberg
Lindy's SEC Unit Rankings for LSU
QB - 14 (pre-Burrow)
RB - 11
WR/TE - 12
OL - 6

DL - 5
LB - 3
DB - 2
ST - 11

The only national ranking for an LSU unit is DBs #8.

By the Numbers
9
Places among the 16 in the four College Football Playoffs that have been held so far that have been taken by teams coached by Nick Saban, Dabo Sweeney, and Urban Meyer
5 of 7
Top QBs in the 2014 247Sports composite recruiting rankings who have left their original schools. A sixth QB moved to receiver at his school.
8
Number of LSU players on the NCAA consensus All-American squad the last nine seasons.
30
Number of Alabama players on the NCAA consensus All-American squad the last nine seasons.
26
SEC players who declared early for the 2018 NFL draft
6
Number of LSU players who left early, most in the conference.
11 Early NFL entrants LSU has lost the last two years.
32 Early NFL entrants from LSU the last six years, the most of any team in the nationby eight.
4/4 O coordinators/QB coaches Jalen Hurts has had in his two years at Alabama
0 SEC games that Arkansas head coach Chad Morris and the four offensive assistants and one defensive assistant he brought with him from SMU
1 FBS assistant coaches who have made more than $2M in a season - LSU's Dave Aranda
27/29 FGs made by PK Cole Tracy, who is at LSU now, last season at Division II Assumption College in MA. Included were two games in each of which he kicked six FGs.

Interesting Quotations
Anonymous opposing coaches size up LSU's SEC opponents for '18

  • Alabama
    On the offense: He changed offensive coordinators and I think that will really help because Mike Locksley is more tuned into running the offense Nick wants. Brian Daboll was a drop-bacy guy. Locksley is a run-pass option guy. This will be the job that gets Locksley a head job. The guy is sharp.
    On the QBs: Saban's got a QB issue. It's not a bad issues because he's got two good players, but he's got to get a resolution that works for him and the team ... You have to design an offense to help Hurts. He's got a different skill set than Tua. Hurts is unbelievable. He's a hard guy to beat because of what he can do with his feet. They've got talent and a damn good offensive line for what they want to do - and that is to push you around and win in the fourth quarter.
  • Arkansas
    On new head coach: Chad Morris saved Dabo Swinney's job at Clemson. Dabo was kind of floundering and he broke Chad in (as offensive coordinator), had a big win in the Orange Bowl and off Clemson went. It will be interesting to see how Morris does with the talent he has. Bret Bielema recruited a certain guy for his offensive mindset and I'm not sure how it translates into Chad's mindset. ... Other than Tennessee, Arkansas probably is least talented team in the league relative to expectations.
  • Auburn
    On Gus Malzahn: Auburn is paying Gus $49 million over seven years and he underachieved again. If Nick Saban had Auburn's talent, he'd have won national championships the last two years. Auburn had the best front seven in college ball last year, but the offense sometimes disappears. If Gus would leave (O coordinator) Chip Lindsey alone, Auburn would be more explosive. Instead, they lost to Central Florida(in the Peach Bowl) and got the crap kicked out of them by Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, after beating Georgia a few weeks before. And they give him a new contract? For what? Mediocrity.
    On QB Jarrett Stidham: He is really good. He put up some big numbers last year, but he's more of a drop-back passwer. He doesn't need to run much zone read.
  • Mississippi State
    On the QB: Nick Fitzgerald is one of the best QBs in the SEC, if he can stay healthy. He's a good passer and a deceivingly good runner ... He's the trigger man behind a really good offense. But I don't know if he'll be as effective under Joe Moorhead as he was under Dan Mullen.
    On the state of the program: Mullen left the cupboard loaded. In fact, State probably has the third-best talent in the West behind Alabama and Auburn. ... DT Jeffery Simmons can be one of the most dominant defensive linemen in the SEC. He's a sure-fire first-round draft pick. I'd be surprised if State doesn't win nine games. They'll be a tough out for every team in the SEC, including Alabama and Auburn.
  • Ole Miss
    On coach Matt Luke: Ole Miss made the right decision keeping Matt Luke, but he's got to fix the defense. They've gone from Land Sharks to shushi-grade tuna. The D coordinator (Wesley McGriff) is a good guy, well respected, but I don't think he's a guy to run the ship. I don't think they're very talented no defense. They've got as bad a defense as anybody in the league.
    On the offense: They've got a new QB (Jordan Ta'amu) who put up good numbers after Shea Patterson was hurt. And they might have the best set of WRs in the league.
  • Texas A&M
    On Jimbo Fisher: Any time you've got somebody that scores points like Jimbo Fisher, you better watch out. He can score points. Your defense plays to the offense's personality. Jimbo's offenses are physical and tough. I know they'll practice more physical than with Kevin Sumlin. That alone will make them better. Jimbo is a hard-nosed guy, he ain't no foo-foo guy. He coaches QBs like some people coach defensive linemen. That will translate into some positives.
    On new D coordinator Mike Elko, most recently at Notre Dame: I never thought Notre Dame played great defense. I watched the first half of A&M's spring game and I though the defense sucked.
  • Florida
    On the program: I don't think Florida is as talented as they've been. I think Dan Mullen did a great job at Mississippi State. But the thing about Florida is, it's a pressure cooker and a seven- or eight-win season in The Swamp will get your ass fired. They don't give a damn what the problems are. You better win.
    On new coach Dan Mullen: I don't know if Mullen can fix the QB problem. He did a helluva job at State with Dak Prescott and Nick Fitzgerald. I'm not betting against him. He'll get better talent at Florida than he had at Mississippi State. What does that equate to in terms of wins and losses? I don't know. Florida fans hope he brings back the production they had when Mullen(as OC at Florida) had Tim Tebow. Since Tebow left, Florida hasn't been worth a crap on offense.
  • Georgia
    On the QB situation: If Jake Fromm doesn't improve, you can blame Kirby Smart for moving (QB coach and O coordinator) Jim Chaney to TE. Chaney did a helluva job with Fromm last year. But Kirby Smart is a mad scientist. He has to experiment.
    On the defense: I don't think Georgia took that big of a hit on defense. They lost (LB) Roquan Smith but the rest of those guys were OK players; they weren't superstars. I ain't buying that they lost that much on defense.
    On the RBs: Nobody's going to match the tandem of Nick Chubb and Sony Michel, but D'Andre Swift is special. He has size, speed, a burst, vision, hands, toughness. And they've got Elijah Holyfield and they signed a great RB (Zamir White). I'm not sleeping on Georgia. They've still got players.
2018 College Football Preview: Street & Smith
Street and Smith is more optimistic about LSU for 2018 than the other preview magazines, ranking them higher in the SEC West and the national Top 25 despite going to press before Burrow's transfer.

Street and Smith's Top Ten

  1. Alabama
  2. Clemson
  3. Ohio State
  4. Georgia
  5. Oklahoma
  6. Wisconsin
  7. Washington
  8. Miami (FL)
  9. Michigan
  10. Penn State

Other SEC teams in the top 25: 12 Auburn, 17 LSU, 19 Mississippi State, 24 South Carolina

Excerpts from the LSU article.
LSU has some big holes, must find a way to inject some life into its offense - hello, new offensive coordinator Steve Ensminger - and replace key contributors at important positions. It may be that the Tigers will be a better team than last year's 9-4 outfit ... but not have an appreciably better record. In fact, the Tigers could finish with fewer wins.
Coach Ed Orgeron's team has lots of talent, but much of it is young. An early spin around the depth chart reveals only four senior starters, and the vast majority of backups are underclassmen, too. ...
Ensminger promises a no-huddle attack with plenty of three- and four-receiver sets, but he has to find someone capable of triggering it.
(This was before Burrow's transfer.) ...
Derrius Guice and Darrel Williams produced 2,071y and 20 TDs. Both are gone, leaving Nick Brossette and Clyde Edwards-Helaire ... Brossette is a bruiser, but both should look out for true freshman Chris Curry, who arrives in the summer. ...
Texas Tech transfer Jonathan Giles ... should juice up the receiving corps. ...
The offensive line is strong in the middle, particularly senior G Garrett Brumfield, but the Tigers need to find a new C ... and a RT ...
Both ends are gone on defense ... Inside LB Devin White is a standout, while outside man K'Lavon Chaisson has plenty of potential. ...
The vaunted WR tradition at LSU is in good hands with this 2018 class. Terrace Marshall Jr. and Ja'Marr Chase make up arguably the best one-two wideout punch in this recruiting cycle. The other typically loaded positions at LSU also got restocked: Local product Kelvin Joseph comes in ready to compete for a starting job in the secondary, freakish Dare Rosenthal (6-7 331 pounds) brings rare physical traits and Dallas OLB Jarell Cherry offers length and athleticism. Also, keep an eye ona juco G Damien Lewis to contribute very early on the offensive line.

Street and Smith's SEC PICKS
SEC WEST SEC EAST
  1. Alabama
  2. Auburn
  3. LSU
  4. Mississippi State
  5. Texas A&M
  6. Ole Miss
  7. Arkansas
  1. Georgia
  2. South Carolina
  3. Florida
  4. Tennessee
  5. Missouri
  6. Kentucky
  7. Vanderbilt

LSU players on Street & Smith's All-SEC Teams:

  • 1st team defense
    LB Devin White, CB Greedy Williams
Top SEC Transfer: Jonathan Giles WR, LSU
The Texas Tech expat caught 69 passes in 2016 and will breathe life into the Tigers' passing game
Coordinator to Watch: Dave Aranda, DC, LSU
Best Game-Day Atmosphere: Tiger Stadum, LSU
With an extra 40,000 or so ticketless Tigers packing the area around the stadium, LSU wins the tailgate. When the game starts, things get even crazier.

By the Numbers
1-5
Jim Harbaugh's record against rivals Michigan State and Ohio State
1-26
Kansas's record in Big 12 play the last three seasons under David Beaty
5
Georgia assistant coaches who make at least $825,000.
5
Number of assistants in FBS football who made at least $825,000 five years ago
2,572
Rushing yards by Georgia's former RBs Sony Michel and Nick Chubb last season
13
Starters Alabama lost after last season, including nine on defense
1,000 Yards gained by Alabama RB Damien Harris last season
28 Combined carries by LSU RBs Nick Brossette and Clyde Edwards-Helaire last year.
41.1 Points per game by Penn State last year under O-coordinator Joe Moorhead, now head coach at Mississippi State
460.3 Yards per game by Penn State last season

Comments on LSU's SEC Opponents

  • Alabama
    If Hurts wants the starting job, he must get more accurate throwing the ball, while Tagovailoa needs to gain experience, although he sure looked pretty calm against Georgia. ...
    There are some questions at wideout since four of the top five receivers from 2017 have left the fold. ...
    There are some big holes to fill along the defensive line ...
    There is trouble in the secondary. ...
  • Arkansas
    After five years of Bret Bielema's ground-based power attack, the Hogs will be making a dramatic switch under first-year head coach Chad Morris ... "We're going to be explosive and fast," Morris says. "We're going to go from 62 plays a game to about 82 to 86 plays." ...
    The defense will switch to a 4-3 ... The unit must improve from last year when it allowed 5.0 ypc and forced only 17 turnovers.
  • Auburn
    With a sturdy QB (Jarrett Stidham), some great receivers and a defensive line that will be one of the best in the country, Auburn is poised to make another run at the division crown. ...
    Kerryon Johnson, who rushed for 1,391y and scored 18 times in 2017, is gone. Although likely starter Kam Martin has potential ... it's unlikely the TB spot will produce as much as Johnson did, even in an offense that relies on the run as much as Malzahn's does.
  • Mississippi State
    There were those in the Pennsylvania media who said Penn State's biggest loss after the 2017 season wasn't all-world RB Saquon Barkley, but former O-coordinator Joe Moorhead, now Mississippi State's head coach. During his 26 games in Happy Valley, the Nittany Lions scored at least 30 points 21 times. ...
    QB Nick Fitzgerald is a mobile weapon who ran for 14 TDs last year but struggled with accuracy and interceptions when throwing.
    New D coordinator Bob Shoop will convert the Bulldogs from a 3-4 to a 4-3 (and 4-2-5 at times) after a shaky year guiding the Tennessee defense. ... Mississippi State must find a new CB, but there is plenty of talent and experience on the rest of the defense.
  • Ole Miss
    The Rebels closed 2017 winning three of their last four games, and that was enough to earn Matt Luke a promotion from interim head coach to full-time boss man. ... Luke must convince players that working and competing for 12 regular-season games is enough - no bowls. Luke is convinced he can do that.
    He's also confident second-year D coordinator Wesley McGriff will improve a unit that finished 115th in the FBS last year in yards allowed ...
  • Texas A&M
    This year's Texas A&M outfit is hoping it lives an entire season, unlike previous Aggie editions, which often looked great for six or seven games before deteriorating. ... A&M should be far less prone to collapses than its predecessors.
    Jimbo Fisher's charge is to match the school's outstanding commitment to its football program with a result commensurate with that dedication. He'll do that by instilling a culture that promotes consistent achievement, constant effort and a desire to imbue the mundane with purpose and urgency. Should the Aggie players adopt those traits, the school's frothing fanbase might just have something to celebrate in a season or two. ...
    Expect the Aggie front seven to be sout, particularly since new D coordinator Mike Elko (arriving from Notre Dame) has a great track record.
  • Florida
    Dan Mullen will put his considerable QB-training skills to the test by trying to coax a big season out of a position the Gators need to be a strong point if they are to reverse their recent troubles. ...
    Whoever wins the QB job had better hope that Florida's receiving corps improves. ... if Ole Miss transfer Van Jefferson is deemed immediately eligible [he was], the crew will receive a boost.
    New D-coordinator Todd Grantham is switching the Gators to a 3-4 alignment ... There is plenty of experience in a solid secondary. ...
  • Georgia
    Georgia coach Kirby Smart on getting past the pain of losing to Alabama in last season's final game: Every second you think about it is one second you could be moving forward. We told our players we wanted them looking out the front windshield instead of the rear-view mirror. Kids today get past things much quicker than coaches. We have used it as a teaching moment.
2018 College Football Preview: ESPN the Magazine
Street and Smith is more optimistic about LSU for 2018 than the other preview magazines, ranking them higher in the SEC West and the national Top 25 despite going to press before Burrow's transfer.

Top Ten in ESPN's Power Rankings

  1. Alabama
  2. Clemson
  3. Ohio State
  4. Georgia
  5. Washington
  6. Wisconsin
  7. Oklahoma
  8. Penn State
  9. Miami (FL)
  10. Auburn

Other SEC teams in the top 25: 17 Mississippi State, 25 South Carolina

By the Numbers
6
Consecutive seasons the Alabama-Auburn game has decided who goes to the SEC Championship Game
10
Returning offensive starters for Florida
9
Consecutive seasons Auburn has had a 1,000y rusher
7 Consecutive seasons the Clemson-Florida State winner has taken home the ACC crown
49.8
Percent of its 2017 tackles that Georgia lost for 2018.

Interesting Quotations

  • On Alabama QB Tua Tagoviloa
    Is it possible he's the best, most explosive QB Saban has ever had? ... Can a guy with 77 career passes supplant Hurts? Tagovailoa still hasn't officially beaten out the incumbent, a former SEC Offensive Player of the year with a 26-2 record as a starter. It's one of the most intriguing QB battles college football has ever seen.
  • Georgia
    Georgia has become the Alabama of the SEC East, thanks largely to former Tide DC Kirby Smart - one of the most important assistants Saban has ever had. From schemes to recruiting, Smart is a virtual carbon copy.
  • Miami
    Mark Richt is Exhibit A on how Saban raised expectations in the SEC: Despite 145 wins at Georgia, Richt was cut loose without any rings. Now he's leading a renaissance at his alma mater - out from Saban's pesky shadow.
  • Mississippi State
    New coach Joe Moorhead hails from the Big Ten, and he has constructed what might be the SEC's most Saban-insulated program. But is that a good thing?
  • South Carolina
    Will Muschamp spent five formative years under Saban at LSU and with the Dolphins, and he quickly hired assistant Lance Thompson, who was at Bama for two stints (2007-08 and 2012-14).
2018 College Football Preview: Sports Illustrated
Sports Illustrated's football issue didn't come out until mid-August. That accounts for their ranking Ohio State much lower than the earlier magazines.

Top Ten

  1. Clemson
  2. Alabama
  3. Wisconsin
  4. Washington
  5. Oklahoma
  6. Georgia
  7. Penn State
  8. Auburn
  9. Ohio State
  10. West Virginia
There are no other SEC teams in the Top 20
By the Numbers
31
Number of rushing TDs in 2017 by Georgia RBs Nick Chubb and Sony Michel, both off to the NFL
160.1
Passer rating of QB Jake Fromm in his first season at Georgia, ranking first among freshmen and eighth among all FBS QBs
53
Games won by Alabama since 2014, an FBS record for most wins in a four-year span
11.9 Points per game allowed by Alabama in '17, fewest in the country
3
Single-digit losses by Auburn (to Clemson, LSU, and Central Florida) among Auburn's four last season.
2003 Last time Miami had a ten-win season before last year.
31 Turnovers forced by Miami last season, third most in the country

Interesting Quotations about LSU's Opponents

  • Opposing Coach's Take on Alabama
    Let's remember: They probably shouldn't even have been in the playoff and won the championship by the skin of their teeth. It wasn't a totally dominant Nick Saban team. That being said, this team could be better than last year's. ... Their offense could be as explosive as it's ever been in the Saban era. QB Tua Tagovailoa can make plays that you've never seen from a QB there before, and the new offensive coordinator, Mike Locksley, is more of a spread guy than his predecessors, so he'll air things out. ... They are very strong at RB. ... There's more uncertainty on the defense. They lost eight starters to the NFL, but the big question is if they'll take a step back with (former DC) Jeremy Pruitt now at Tennessee.
  • Opposing Coach's Take on Georgia
    Since Kirby Smart took over two years ago their scheme has looked a lot like Smart's former team's - but after a few strong recruiting classes, now their personnel is starting to look like Alabama's, too. When we studied all our opponents, they were, by far, the most physical team, on both offense and defense. .
  • Opposing Coach's Take on Auburn
    Auburn under coach Gus Malzahn is the epitome of SEC football: a great combination of power football combined with gadgets and trickery, simple concepts for explosive athletes. Facing Malzahn, you have to prepare for things that he did 10 years ago as an offensive coordinator, because you never know what he's going to dig up. ... There's still a lot to be desired with QB Jarrett Stidham. Facing a rush, his eyes come down. He gets nervous because he doesn't want to get hit. ... The defense has a chance to be one of the best in the country.
  • Opposing Coach's Take on Miami
    The Miami Way under Coach Mark Richt is simple: Our players are faster and bigger and stronger than your players, so we're going to let our players play. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. With the Hurricanes' talent at their skill positions, a team like Duke has no business competing against them, but last year the Blue Devils made adjustments and the game was tight until the end. ... Defensively, they're small, scrappy and they're going to blitz from all over the field in their 4-3 set.
2018 College Football Preview: Phil Steele
Phil Steele's Top Ten
  1. Alabama
  2. Clemson
  3. Ohio State
  4. Washington
  5. Georgia
  6. Wisconsin
  7. Miami (FL)
  8. Notre Dame
  9. Oklahoma
  10. Texas

Other SEC teams in Top 25: 17 Florida, 19 Auburn, 21 Mississippi State

Phil Steele's SEC PICKS
SEC WEST SEC EAST
  1. Alabama
  2. Auburn
  3. Mississippi State
  4. Texas A&M
  5. LSU
  6. Arkansas
  7. Ole Miss
  1. Georgia
  2. Florida
  3. South Carolina
  4. Missouri
  5. Kentucky
  6. Tennessee
  7. Vanderbilt
By the Numbers
17
Consecutive seasons in which LSU has won at least eight games, second longest in the FBS.
22.8
Average margin for Vanderbilt in their seven SEC defeats in 2017.
56.8
Points per game average by Missouri the last two years vs non-Power Five teams or Power Five teams not in a bowl
20 Points per game by Missouri against Power Five teams that went to a bowl the last two seasons
19
Returning starters at Florida
3 Preseason top five teams that Auburn plays away from home this season
0 National titles won by Alabama under Nick Saban when ranked #1 in the composite preseason polls

Excerpts from Steele's LSU Analysis (Written after Joe Burrow transferred)

  • QBs: LSU is moving to a more pass-happy system so their numbers will naturally improve and Burrow should have a fine season.
  • RBs: This unit is clearly less experienced and this is the first time LSU has zero td's returning frm their RB's since 1974!
  • Receivers: They have great size with six WR's being 6'3" or taller ... They are in better overall shape despite losing their top 2 and should have a big increase in production in the new offense.
  • Offensive Line: (In 2017) Will Clapp moved to C, making room for Saahdiq Charles to become the first true frosh OL in LSU history to start the opener. ... They have three starters returning with just 35 career starts, but add two very highly touted (VHT) JC's. They are more experienced and stronger but, without their talented RB's, their rush numbers could be down.
  • Defensive Line: This is a less experienced unit but still very talented (9 VHTs).
  • LBs: Devin White became the first LSU player to win SEC Defensive Player of the Week honors four times in one season and led with 133 tackles. ... This unit is loaded with VHT's and 6 have starting experience so they actually have more experience than the '17 version.
  • DBs: There are some depth concerns at CB (since alleviated by Fulton's reduced suspension) but we expect another top 15 finish in our Pass Defense Ratings.
  • Special Teams: This year they lose 1st team SEC PR Chark but add transfer K Cole Tracy and hired a ST coach in Greg McMahon so they should be improved.
  • 2018 Prognosis: They did get the late addition of QB Burrow from Ohio State and Aranda will guide one of the SEC's top defenses as always. LSU was +10 in TO's in '17 and has just 10 returning starters and drops to #129 on my Experience Chart. The Tigers play Miami in the opener and two of their SEC home games are vs Alabama and Georgia. They will have to win some big road games this year to get back to '17's 9 win total and Ed Orgeron is on my hotseat list.
Steele's SEC Unit Rankings for LSU
QB - 12
RB - 11
REC - 8
OL - 5

DL - 6
LB - 2
DB - 1
ST - 9
Steele's National Unit Rankings for LSU
QB - Not in top 55
RB - 52
REC - 28
OL - 19

DL - 26
LB - 10
DB - 4
ST - Not in top 55

LSU's 2018 schedule is ranked the 10th toughest in the nation.

Phil's 2018 Surprise Teams

  1. Notre Dame
  2. Texas
  3. Michigan State
  4. Michigan
  5. Stanford
  6. USC
  7. Florida State
  8. Mississippi State
  9. Boston College
  10. TCU

Phil's 2018 Most Improved Teams

  1. Florida
  2. Utah State
  3. North Carolina
  4. Colorado
  5. Georgia Southern
  6. Old Dominion
  7. Nebraska
  8. ULM
  9. Miami (OH)
  10. Indiana

Golden Rankings Home

CONTENTS OF THIS PAGE